MOSTLY FALSE: Martin O’Malley’s claim that immigration reform raises U.S. household incomes $250
While presidential candidate and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley was in Austin on a campaign stop, he said immigration reform would pay off for all Americans through their paychecks.
In a Nov. 12, 2015 interview on “Overheard with Evan Smith,” O’Malley discussed President Barack Obama’s executive order on immigration, and whether he would take similar action. O’Malley told Smith he believes the country needs immigration reform because it’s “something important for the economy of the United States.”
“If we pass immigration reform, it will make wages go up on average $250 for the average household,” he elaborated. “Why? Because you’re getting 11 million people in many times off-the-books jobs onto the open economy of the United States of America.”
Hold on, pardner.
In 2013, research by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office predicted that with immigration reform, household incomes, on average, would be up by $250–in 2033. In addition, both the CBO and others estimated downs and ups in income affects though the intervening years.
We concluded O’Malley’s statement would not be accurate anytime soon. The $250 in question is a calculation based on mathematical assumptions — assumptions that some question — that refers to a long-term result over two decades. In the near term, the same analysis projects wages would dip slightly.
