Says 18 states and the District of Columbia have voted Democratic in six consecutive presidential elections.
18 states have voted Democratic in six consecutive elections with 242 electoral votes, George Will says
The lopsided re-election of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has ignited talk about Christie’s 2016 presidential prospects. In his victory speech, Christie, eyes straight at the camera, invited the rest of the country to see what a Republican could achieve in New Jersey.
Conservative pundit George Will said the prospect of flipping a blue state could be Christie’s trump card if he does decide to run for president.
“He will turn to the Republicans now and say, ‘Your problem is the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted democratic in six consecutive presidential elections,’” Will said on Fox News Sunday. “Those 18 states, which include New Jersey by the way, have 242 electoral votes. If the Democratic presidential nominee can assume those states, he or she will spend the autumn of 2016 looking for 28 electoral votes, and he or she will find them.”
It’s a simple matter of going to the electoral college record to see if Will has his numbers right, and he does.
While about one third of the states have moved from one party to the other over the past 24 years, Democrats have been able to hold on to a larger number than Republicans. More importantly, the Democratic states have bigger populations and thus deliver more electoral votes.
Democrats can count on the two big prizes of California and New York, while Republicans can counter with just one super-sized state, Texas. The average state in the blue column delivers 13 electoral votes; the average on the red side is 8.
Here’s a look at the states that have voted the same way since Bill Clinton was elected in 1992 and the total number of electoral votes they now cast:
Democratic since 1992
Electoral votes
Republican since 1992
Electoral votes
California
55
Alabama
9
Connecticut
7
Alaska
3
D.C.
3
Kansas
6
Delaware
3
Idaho
4
Hawaii
4
Mississippi
6
Illinois
20
Nebraska
5
Maine
4
North Dakota
3
Maryland
10
Oklahoma
7
Massachusetts
11
South Carolina
9
Michigan
16
South Dakota
3
Minnesota
10
Texas
38
New Jersey
14
Utah
6
New York
29
Wyoming
3
Oregon
7
Total
102
Pennsylvania
20
Rhode Island
4
Vermont
3
Washington
12
Wisconsin
10
Total
242
Source: U.S. Electoral College
Other Republicans have weighed in on this Democratic advantage. A recent commentary in Red State, a self-described right-of-center website, suggested the problem is even worse than Will said.
“After totaling the electoral votes in all the solid blue states, it becomes apparent that even a below average Democrat presidential candidate could begin the race with a whopping 246 advantage,” the author said. “No wonder President (Barack) Obama was so confident of victory in 2012 for he knew the game was practically over before it began.”
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said the hurdle for Republicans doesn’t look any better if you count the underlying votes by citizens, not just the electoral results.
“Democrats have also won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential contests,” Sabato said. “The demographic shifts heading to mid century are all pro-Democratic.”
Our ruling
Will said Democrats have taken 18 states and the District of Columbia in every presidential election since 1992. The record backs that up.
We rate the claim True.
Our Sources
Fox News, Fox News Sunday, Nov. 10, 2013
U.S. Electoral College, Historical election results
Red State, Can any Republican win 270 electoral votes in 2016 or ever again?, Aug. 10, 2013
Email interview with Larry Sabato, professor of politics, University of Virginia, Nov. 10, 2013
