When we last updated this promise in February 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had appointed a special envoy, Todd Stern, to represent the United States in climate change negotiations before the United Nations.
So what has transpired since Todd Stern"s appointment?
The United States participated in the 2009 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark. The conference"s purpose was to negotiate a follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol agreement on greenhouse gas emission cuts, which is set to expire in 2012. Friction erupted between the U.S. and China, the world"s two largest greenhouse-gas emitters, over verification of emission reductions. Meanwhile, developing nations pressed industrialized countries to commit to specific emission targets.
In the end, the United States and four other countries (China, Brazil, India, and South Africa) produced a framework entitled the Copenhagen Accord. The deal called for recognition that global temperatures should not rise more than 2 degrees Celsius and stated that developed countries would provide hundreds of billions of dollars in aid by 2020 to assist developing nations to cope with climate change. Major criticisms of the The accord was criticized because it was not legally binding and relied on countries to fairly report their own emission reduction efforts.
It was hoped that that the U.N. member states could build upon this accord with a more formal agreement during the 2010 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico. The Cancun agreement spelled out the emission-cutting commitments individual countries made in the wake of Copenhagen. Member nations also formally established a Green Fund to assist developing countries. A U.N. anti-deforestation scheme, in which developed countries would pay their developing counterparts not to cut down forests, was also agreed upon. But still no follow-up to the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated.
U.N. member states hope to expand on the Cancun agreement during the 2011 Conference on Climate Change to be held in Durban, South Africa from Nov. 28 – Dec. 9. This will be the last opportunity for President Obama"s climate negotiators to solidify an agreement before the 2012 presidential election, and the last chance U.N. member nations will have to establish a new agreement before the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.
It is clear that the Obama administration has worked with the U.N. on climate change. The question, however, is whether the effort has produced any substantive outcomes. Most of the pledges to come out of these talks have been nonbinding. The conflict between China and the United States have helped prevent a substantive agreement. The two countries seem to be in a holding pattern, where one will not take action unless the other does. And even if there is an agreement, it still must be ratified in the U.S. Senate.
Experts told us they were not hopeful that any substantive agreements will come out of South Africa this year. "Although other countries may move forward with Kyoto, right now we have low hopes for climate leadership from the U.S., and therefore for an agreement that includes the U.S. We see no indication yet that the U.S. delegation's marching orders will change from trying to stall the negotiations progressing toward anything like a treaty," said Kyle Ash, Senior Legislative Representative for Greenpeace USA in an e-mail interview.
We will hold off on a definitive rating until after the conclusion of this year"s climate conference. Until then, we rate this promise as Stalled.