Biden has made significant progress in controlling COVID-19, but it’s far from contained

More than anything else, Joe Biden emphasized in his campaign last year that, if elected, he would get control of the COVID-19 pandemic. For most of 2020, the virus raged across the U.S., vaccines were not yet available and then-President Donald Trump often ignored the pandemic’s seriousness.

“I’m never going to raise the white flag and surrender,” Biden said during a campaign rally on Nov. 2, 2020. “We’re going to beat this virus. We’re going to get it under control, I promise you.” 

On Biden’s first full day in office, Jan. 21, 2021, the number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was at one of its peaks: more than 193,000 new cases were reported that day. 

But in the almost five months since, cases have been on a steady decline, largely due to the vaccination rollout. On June 6, just over 10,000 new COVID-19 cases were reported. That’s a 95% drop in cases from Jan. 21. 

Deaths due to COVID-19 have also plummeted. On Jan. 21 there were more than 3,000 deaths in one day. On June 6 there were 225. That’s a 93% reduction. 

Biden took over an initially disjointed COVID-19 vaccine rollout from the Trump administration and has been successful in getting at least one shot into the arms of more than 63% of the U.S. adult population. 

Some experts say, though, the initial vaccine distribution would likely have been bumpy whoever was president at the time. The Biden administration has also faced some rough spots, especially in the early spring months when people who were eligible for vaccinations were not able to get them. 

But in early April, Biden directed states to make all U.S. adults eligible for the vaccine by April 19. Vaccinations surged from March through April at rates of 2 million to 3 million shots per day. The numbers have recently leveled out to less than a million per day on average, as the people most eager to get vaccinated have already received their doses, leaving behind those who have more difficulty accessing the vaccine or may be more hesitant to get it. 

Experts said it’s clear that Biden has made significant progress in curbing the number of cases in the U.S. and making vaccines more widely available. 

“If we could say six months ago where we would be now is well over 60% [of the U.S. adult population vaccinated], ideally approaching 70% of all adults, that is really incredible,” said Dr. Leana Wen, visiting professor of health policy and management at the George Washington University’s Milken School of Public Health. “We should give the Biden administration an extraordinary amount of credit for what they have done for vaccine distribution and production.” 

Still, Wen said the pandemic is not over and there is still much work to be done on vaccination. 

While the overall U.S. vaccination rate is promising, some states are lagging behind.

According to the New York Times COVID Vaccination Tracker, in Alabama, Mississippi, Wyoming, Louisiana and Tennessee, fewer than 50% of people have received at least one dose of the vaccine. At this pace, it may take them up to a year to reach the 70% mark. Meanwhile, states such as Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut have already surpassed 70%.  

“There is vast inequity in vaccination uptake if you look at geography, and so what I worry about is regionalized outbreaks occurring throughout the summer,” said Wen. “And coming into the fall and winter, we may not have enough vaccination or immunity in the population to fend off a surge in the colder weather or variants.” 

And though there has been progress in recent weeks in reducing racial and ethnic inequities in vaccination, there are still disparities in vaccination rates between white people and people of color. 

Demographic data is available for only 57% of those who have been vaccinated. But of that group, 9% were Black, 14.5% were Hispanic/Latino and 61% were white. For Black and Hispanic people, those percentages are lower than their share of the U.S. population: 12.4% and 17.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, white people make up 61% of the total U.S. population. The Kaiser Family Foundation’s most recent weekly demographic report shows Black and Hispanic people have also received smaller shares of vaccinations compared with their share of cases in most states. For example in Colorado, 11% of vaccinations have gone to Hispanic people, while they account for 41% of cases and 25% of deaths.

There’s also a gap in vaccine acceptance between Democrats and Republicans: A different KFF April report found that 20% of Republicans say they will “definitely not” get vaccinated, compared with 13% of independents and 4% of Democrats. 

“So long as there are groups or regions where vaccination rates are low, there’s the potential for severe illness and death from COVID,” Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF wrote in an email. “Truly keeping the pandemic under control in the U.S. requires narrowing the vaccination disparities.” 

On June 2, Biden announced a “National Month of Action,” which involves a variety of programs that aim to encourage more Americans to get vaccinated and to reach his goal of having 70% of the U.S. population vaccinated by July 4. The initiatives include providing free childcare for those getting vaccinated, extending pharmacy hours, hosting community canvassing events, engaging with Black-owned barbershops and airing vaccine education segments on the radio. Incentives include sweepstakes and giveaways from prominent companies like Anheuser Busch, Microsoft and Kroger. 

It remains to be seen if these efforts will work. 

Experts acknowledge that COVID-19 will likely never be eliminated completely and the world will have to learn to live with it. Scientists also say that it may be difficult or impossible for the U.S. to reach herd immunity against COVID-19 — but that what matters is as many people get vaccinated as possible. Combining those vaccinations with those who have natural immunity from infection, they say, the U.S. is likely to eventually reach levels where cases are very low and hospitalizations and deaths are rare. 

But for now COVID-19 cannot be declared completely under control yet. We continue to rate this promise In the Works.