Chris Christie’s “Comeback” scorecard

 New Jersey

For the past year, Gov. Chris Christie has been selling the “Jersey Comeback” in town hall meetings across the state, telling eager and skeptical residents the state is creating jobs and making other in-roads toward a return to economic good times.

With latest numbers showing New Jersey’s unemployment rate among the highest in the nation and a loss of 12,000 jobs in July after months of increases, the governor’s opponents were itching for a fight over Christie’s record on the economy as he is set to deliver the keynote address to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday night.

But on Wednesday,  Christie told reporters he will not utter the words “Jersey comeback” in his high-profile speech. Christie nonetheless will tout his record as governor, and a large part of that narrative has been his stewardship of the economy.

With many eyes on Christie as he gives the big convention speech, Politifact New Jersey is taking a look at some issues key to New Jersey’s growth and its quality of life.

Our scorecard works like this: we measured jobs, finances, real estate and transportation annually from January 2009 – the year before Christie became governor – to the most recent data available. To be clear, we are not holding Christie responsible for growth or lack of growth in each category. Instead, we present this data so New Jersey can decide for itself whether a Comeback has begun.

Jobs

One of the key arguments behind Christie’s “comeback” theme has been the job growth under his watch. Since the governor took office, there has been a decline in public-sector employment and an increase in private-sector employment. The state’s unemployment rate originally fell during Christie’s tenure, but has increased in recent months.

Category
January 2009
January 2010
January 2011
January 2012
July 2012

Unemployment Rate

7.4%

9.7%

9.4%

9%

9.8% (P)

Total Jobs

3,958,400

3,852,200

3,837,500

3,883,400

3,899,600 (P)

Public Sector

651,200

649,000

620,300

621,000

623,000 (P)

Private Sector

3,307,200

3,203,200

3,217,200

3,262,400

3,276,600 (P)

Average annual pay*

$55,168

$56,382

$57,529 (P)

N/A

 

*The Average Annual Pay is available annually. All other data categories are available monthly. (P) Preliminary figures
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, N.J. Department of Labor

Finances

Christie delivered his first budget for fiscal year 2011, proposing less spending than the budgets his predecessor passed in the two previous fiscal years. Average property taxes have continued to climb under Christie, despite a cap on property taxes and health and pension benefit reform he ushered into law.

Category
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

State Budget*

$32.9 billion

$28.99 billion

$28.4 billion

$29.7 billion

$31.7 billion

Growth in state GDP

-4.8%

1.5%

-0.5%

N/A

 

State Debt as of June 30

$35.51 billion

$36.91 billion

$38.06 billion

N/A

 

Avg. property taxes

$7,281

$7,576

$7,759

N/A

 

Avg. property taxes after rebate

$6,244

$7,576**

$7,519

N/A

 

*Budget as signed at start of fiscal year **No rebate in 2010
Sources: N.J. Treasury Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, N.J. Department of Community Affairs

Real Estate

The recession officially ended in June 2009 but the trickle-down effects of a sagging economy continued to be felt in the years ahead. The Garden State saw significant declines in the number of homes sold as well as median home values.

Category
2009
2010
2011
First quarter 2012

Real estate sales

115,300

84, 400

79,400

17,200 (P)

Median Home Values

$306,700

$304,000

$291,700

$265,000 (P)

Mortgage loans in foreclosure*

5.82%

7.28%

8.21%

8.37%

*Data for 2009-2011 represents the fourth quarter of each year. (P) Preliminary figures
Sources: N.J. Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association

Transportation

Getting from Point A to Point B became more expensive between 2010 and 2012 after Christie allowed the Port Authority to increase tolls and other toll hikes approved by Christie’s predecessor went into effect. Meanwhile, Christie, like other governors, has refused to increase the state’s gas tax, which supports transportation projects

Bridges/Tunnels

Category
January 2010
August 2012

New Jersey to New York crossings*

$8 during peak hours, w/ E-ZPass

$9.50 during peak hours, w/ E-ZPass

*GWB, Holland & Lincoln tunnels, Bayonne &Goethals bridges, Outerbridge crossing

Toll Highways

Category
January 2010
August 2012

New Jersey Turnpike: Trenton to Newark

$3 one way, peak hours

$4.60 one way, peak hours

Garden State Parkway: Bloomfield to Belmar

$1.70

$2.50

 

Fuel Costs

Category
January 2009
January 2010
January 2011
January 2012
January 2013

Gas prices for NJ

$1.60

$2.60

$3.02

$3.30

$3.40

Gas prices for USA

$1.79

$2.71

$3.10

$3.37

$3.42

Sources: AAA Mid-Atlantic, N.J. Turnpike Authority

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Our Sources

Jobs

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, & Earnings, accessed July 27 and Aug. 24, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, accessed July 27 and Aug. 24, 2012

New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Current Employment Statistics, accessed July 27 and Aug. 24, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2011 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates: New Jersey, accessed July 27, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business Employment Dynamics Data by States, accessed July 27, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, accessed July 27 and Aug. 24, 2012

Finances

New Jersey Department of Community Affairs, Property Tax Information, accessed July 27, 2012

State of New Jersey, Debt Report: Fiscal Year 2011, accessed July 27, 2012

State of New Jersey, Debt Report: Fiscal Year 2010, accessed July 27, 2012

State of New Jersey, Debt Report: Fiscal Year 2009, accessed July 27, 2012

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Widespread Economic Growth Across States in 2011, June 5, 2012

New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Gross Domestic Product by State, accessed July 27, 2012

New Jersey Treasury Department, Prior Fiscal Year Publication Archives, accessed July 27, 2012


Real Estate

New Jersey Association of Realtors, Quarterly Statistics, accessed Aug. 23, 2012

Interview with Lauren Castellano, director of communications for the New Jersey Association of Realtors, Aug. 23, 2012

E-mail interview with Matthew J. Robinson, senior public affairs specialist with the Mortgage Bankers Association, Aug. 3, 2012


Transportation

New Jersey Turnpike Authority, Traffic Resources: Toll Rates, accessed Aug. 8, 2012

E-mail interview with Thomas Feeney, spokesman for the New Jersey Turnpike Authority, Aug. 8, 2012

New Jersey Turnpike Authority, Toll Information: 2010, accessed Aug. 23, 2012

New Jersey Turnpike Authority, Toll Information: 2012, accessed Aug. 23, 2012

Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Tolls, accessed Aug. 8, 2012

E-mail interview with Tracy E. Noble, manager of public and government affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic, Aug. 1, 2012